The U.S. Presidential Election will soon be over, but the ramifications will be around for half a decade. So what would be the likely effect on RV parks based on the key party platforms going into the election?
Capital gains tax
This is probably one of the biggest items. Trump is against higher taxes, while Clinton is wanting to aggressively raise taxes on the wealthy (it does not take much to be defined as “wealthy” in the U.S. any more, as over 50% of the American population is one some form of social subsidy). The net effect of just the “concept” of higher taxes will lead many moms and pops to sell their RV parks immediately while taxes are low. So if Clinton wins, we expect to see many RV parks go on the market all at once (and at some pretty good prices).
Income tax
Clinton would also like to raise regular income tax on the wealthy. This could have a negative effect on RV sales, but little else. Retirees pay no income tax except in limited form, and if you already have an RV, it’s unlikely that higher income tax will translate to less use of the vehicle (since the RV was often purchased as a lower cost mode of vacation). Trump would, again, have no impact as he is against higher taxes.
Immigration
This issue is immaterial to the RV park business regardless of who wins the election. RV parks have extremely limited customers who would therefore be in the jeopardy, so this point is mute.
Minimum wage
Clinton is for it and Trump is against it. If Clinton wins, the impact here would be on the RV park payroll. In some cases, RV park owners may want to reduce their staff. The good news is that many RV parks are actually overstaffed and could use a little consolidation of duties. Many moms and pops are too kind hearted to let people go even when they are of little economic value. Looks for reductions in staff in proportion to the total amount of higher wages.
Healthcare
The ramifications of Obamacare have already been felt by RV park owners who have to pay substantial amounts for their employees. Clinton will retain the status quo, while Trump vows to eliminate the concept. If Trump wins, it would be huge boost to park owners on the healthcare cost item.
Energy
Trump is for greater energy production, while Clinton is against it. Since Obama was also against it, current fuel prices imply a Democratic President. However, if Trump wins, it might reduce gas prices, which would be great for the RV industry and lead to greater units on the road and more miles logged.
Foreign policy
No impact on the RV park industry from this item. Whether we increase troops in Afghanistan or reduce aid to Libya, it has no impact on RV parks, except from any potential impact to oil exports.
Subsidies
RV owners are wealthy, and are rarely on subsidies, except for social security. Neither candidate has shown any desire to curtail social security payments, so this item is of no importance.
Trade
Virtually all RV production is within the U.S. However, there may be components built overseas. Higher trade tariffs (as proposed by Trump) could potentially increase the cost of some RV models. But we think it would be slight and not enough to really impact sales. It also might keep some RV producer from contemplating a move to Mexico, so that would be a positive contribution.
Military
The last round of base closures was in 2005 – over a decade ago. It is very likely that Trump or Clinton may alter the military in a manner that leads to more base closures. This could be a very important item to RV parks that are located near bases. Make sure that you have a good handle on this in due diligence, as the last thing you would want to do is buy a park in a market that is going to lose its largest employer. Remember that, with base closures, some bases grow and others disappear. Fort Hood and Fort Bragg, for example, actually grew during the last round of closures, as the troops are consolidated at the larger bases.
Conclusion
While there are many important issues facing the U.S. right now, the impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on the RV park industry is slight. Both candidates could create positives and negatives concerning RV park ownership. So hang in there, it’ll be O.K. regardless of who wins.